|
The History of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager
2015 is the sixteenth year of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) bet type and every year the field offers great potential Derby Contenders, resulting in exciting and profitable betting!
When it comes to making a future wager on the Kentucky Derby, you should first take a look at the results and betting trends from the past twelve years of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager to help guide your horse betting decisions. Over the history of the KDFW, winners have been split between good payouts on contenders and mutuel field horses that seem to come out of nowhere. This demonstrates that there are a couple ways to make money on the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and it�s lucrative to consider both when making your bet.
Here are some good examples of past Kentucky Derby Future Wagers versus what they were at post time on the Kentucky Derby day�
2001 & 2000: Derby Contenders, Monarchos and Fusaichi Pegasus actual prices on Kentucky Derby day were much lower than the odds they were offered at in Pool 1.
1999 & 2002: Derby Contenders, Charismatic and War Emblem came out of now here to give the field players the money on Derby day.
2003: Derby Contender, Funny Cide was listed at a great price as a single wagering interest in all three pools that year, which ended up payingmuch more to his Future Wager bettors than his Derby Day mutuel of $27.60.
2010: Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, is the prime example of the wagering value of the Future Wager. Super Saver returned a Kentucky Derby Day win of $18 for a $2 wager which was well below the return on a $2 bet in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools 1 ($43.20), 2 ($51.20) and 3 ($73). Betting early paid in this case.
The best way to use the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is to make wagers on two or three contenders who have good odds, then use a sizeable field bet to hedge your bet. So, on Kentucky Derby day, you could have more than 50 percent of the horses covered, with a variety of ways to collect your winnings.
What is a Kentucky Derby Future Wager
By definition a "future" wager is generally something that happens in the future, you make the bet long before the sporting event sometimes weeks or months in advance.
In the case of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, it provides fans with the opportunity to wager on potential contenders at odds that could be considerably more attractive than those available on the day of the Kentucky Derby. Winning payouts on the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers are determined by the odds in place at the end of each respective betting pool.
When are the Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pools Offered?
There are three pools available for the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers in 2012. The dates will be announced early in the year and we will publish them as soon as they are available.
Kentucky Derby Pool #1
TBA
Kentucky Derby Pool #2
TBA
Kentucky Derby Pool #3
TBA
The Goal of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby can seem challenging so far out; it�s hard enough to pick the winner on the day of Kentucky Derby never mind two months in advance. But, the goal on the future wager is different from what you might be trying to accomplish the day of Derby and its important to keep this goal in mind.
The goal of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is to make smart wagers on horses that are most likely to make it to the post on the day of Kentucky Derby. You are very likely to get much better odds that far in advance compared to what will be offered on Derby day.
So, don�t worry too much about who will wear the magnificent garland of roses at Churchill Downs on May 5, 2012, and just try to predict who has the best chance of making it to the starting gate! If the Kentucky Derby Contenders load in the gate on Kentucky Derby Day and you are holding a ticket at 45-1 on a horse that is racing at 3-1 odds that day, then you have played the future wager successfully.
How to Select the Best Bet for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager
In order to focus on horses that will are most likely to start in the Kentucky Derby, stay away from horses who seem to have more than a 50 percent chance of not running for some reason. This would include foreign horses and sprinters. Foreign horses may lack in their commitment and not end up making the trip to America in May and sprinters with possible distance limitations may not make a mile and a quarter. So consider these potential issues and limitations into the future wager price you are looking for.
One of the more attractive Kentucky Derby Future Wager selections would be a 3-year old who is based in North America, and can easily make the trip, with the pedigree and potential to stretch out to the Derby distance with connections that have shown a strong commitment or desire to run in the Derby. In this case, the only remaining item to consider would be the actual performance come Kentucky Derby Day. This makes a smart future wager with the potential for a good return on your investment.
The Mutuel Field: What is it And Why it's Important
Although many horse bettors don�t bet the field because of low odds, it�s important to consider it, especially in first two pools of any Kentucky Derby campaign.
The mutuel field includes all 3-year-old Thoroughbreds other than the 23 individual horses in the three-day pool and has been the Pool 1 favorite every year in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The field in Pool 1 has produced 54.2% or 59 out of the last 109 Kentucky Derby starters
Many Kentucky Derby Future players use the mutuel field as a "saver" bet while searching for bargain prices. As an example of this strategy, consider the 2002 Kentucky Derby winner, War Emblem, who was a late bloomer. War Emblem returned $43 on a $2 Derby win bet, but only $7.60 as a member of the Pool 1 mutuel field. The �all others� 3-year-olds betting interest in that pool happened to include: Proud Citizen with post-time odds of 23-1, Perfect Drift at 7-1, Medagliad'Oro at 6-1, Essence of Dubai at 10-1and Castle Gandolfo at 14-1. The top three finishers in the 2002 Kentucky Derby were War Emblem, Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift who were all members of the mutuel field.
Wagering interests for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager are determined by a three-member committee that include national handicapper Mike Watchmaker, West Coast correspondent Brad Free, and John Asher who is VP of Racing Communications at Churchill Downs.
When to make your Kentucky Derby Future Wager
The best time to bet on the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is just before closing time on the last day of the wagering period. The odds on the KDFW will move over the 3 days that the pool is open and there will likely be Kentucky Derby Prep Races on the Saturday. So the closer you are to the end of the pool window, the more similar your odds will be at the point when the pool closes. If you want to make your bet early, be sure to check out the results of Kentucky Derby prep races on the Saturday. How the horses perform in those races will often cause large swings in the odds offered for the KDFW.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Overlays
Remember that the Kentucky Derby Future Wager has 24 betting interests, but a take out of only 16 percent. This means that unless the public correctly assesses the chances of all 24 betting interests, will exist in each pool. Funny Cide, the 2003 Kentucky Derby Contenderis a good example of this.
Funny Cide had not won a race as a 3-year-old but his overall performance was really good so the odds in each of his 2003 races showed that the bettors believed he had talent. In January of that year he ran in the Holy Bull where his odds were set at 5-1, but in the subsequent Pool 1 he was a 93-1.
In his next start which was the Louisiana Derby in March he went off at 6-1. Pool 2 closed a week later with his final odds coming down from Pool 1�s but still sitting at 59-1. When Pool 3 closed, his odds were nearly 53-1 even though only one week later he ran second to that year�s Kentucky Derby favorite, Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial, and at 5-1! So, no matter how difficult it may seem to assess the chances of young 3-year-olds, the existence of overlays is almost assured.
Putting It All Together to Make your Kentucky Derby Future Wager
The field is a good bet as long as the odds are 5-2 or higher. Here�s what you might do if you have $300 to wager� you might bet $150 to win on the mutual field, and split the other $150 between your top two or three Kentucky Derby favorites.
|
